I have decided to go for the fences.I am currently in a financial dilemma for the subsequent two years and wont be able to have much in savings.All I have saved is a small account that I have decided to risk it all.I have determined that a lifetime without needing CALCULATED risks isn't worth living at all.Get rich or die trying they state...
I have decide to use 1/4 kelly for my own position sizing.This will let me gain approximately 1000% a year without becoming the famous margin call.Ruin amounts are set at 50% at which I will review if the system is still viable.At 35% draw downs I shall shrink my size by half and when the losing streak continues I shall keep on reducing the dimensions until I get my confidence back.This isn't the mathematically correct way of doing this but its own observation that losing streaks tend to last,also each of the old timers have a tendency to concur with this method,therefore no need for me to re-invent the wheel .
My egy trades the tendency and involves lots of pairs.i will take a max of 2 correlated positions at any 1 time.I expect my diversifiion will reduce my general risk as I have noticed there's always a pair trending while some go int a ranging fit such as has become the EURUSD of late that has been an ass to trade.My platform has been back-tested for 3 years and forward analyzed for 6months. So far the results match so I could say its quite robust.It wins roughly 50% of the tome with a win/loss ratio of 2. The standard deviation of this system is reduced and based on Van Tharps system quality metrics its a very good platform (over 3.1).Thats just how much I could reveal about the computer system.
I know the aims seem outlandish but honestly I have scientifically tested the sytem.I know some professionals who say you have to backtest over 10 yrs of information and 10000 of trades.But that the fact of the matter markets change and old results cannot be relied on.I have seen completely backtested systems fail spectacularly in the actual markets to know backtesting isnt an specific science.My remedy to this is that around 50% of my trades are based on discretion. . .so its tougher to backtest.My discretionary trades are the most profitable trades and are rather well based on logic...I have only deviated once from this logic rather than repeat again.
All of mt trades have a predefined SL.In all of my trading background I have always put a SL.I owe my survivability in this game for it.I have never come close to blowing my account in my newb period coz Im paranoid...I always would be.In my thoughts I thinks of black swans regularly.Thats why I have used 1/4 kelly as I have found it the best compromise between attaining my targets and blowing out and I have a predefined Ruin levels that Im sure will be attained when I trade long enough from my montecarlo testing...I expect to have made a fantastic wad as to reduce risk to the pleasant 2% by then.
Wish me luck guys.Probably when I blow off I will disappear from this forum such as many before me.Cheers.
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